posted
Even though as I write this, it hasn't formally happened, Nikki will "suspend" her campaign today. Whether or not she endorses Trump remains to be seen. Under the Constitution (assuming it too has not been "suspended"), she won't have to face Trump when she likely runs again in '28.
So, absent that Joe "abdicates" on Thursday as part of the SOTU, and as columnist Maureen Dowd is hoping for, we're heading for a "rematch".
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Joe, what were you "high on" delivering the SOTU?
The whole performance "simply wasn't you". Just because Trump is a "circus barker" and "showman" doesn’t make you such.
That was your last chance to step down, which would have resulted in an "Open Convention".
It would be a drastic step on my part, but my Presidential vote just might be "present". Of course I'll show up to vote - both Primary and General - as I do want to support Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL6) and even if County and Local elections are a "zees iez how ve do it in zee Old Country" charade, we have some important Referenda on the ballot as well.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
One friend, who's "all over me" when I shared my intent to cast a "present" vote, did just that during '08. She was so enamored with Hillary and wanted her so badly, that she couldn't vote for anyone else and, acknowledging her duty to vote, did so with a write in "present".
"Present" signifies that I recognize my duty to vote, but I don't want either one of 'em. I once did vote Third Party - Anderson '80 - because I simply "wasn't ready for Reagan" (was in '84). I have held since then that I threw my vote away, but at least I selected a recognized candidate, who I think represented the third strongest such challenge in the past 100 years (1 Perot, 2 TR, 3 Anderson).
I reiterate, so far as I'm concerned, I think Joe was "on something" and I was only giving him a 50-50 that he would make it through the SOTU Address. I realize there has been favorable media comments (well, the media I am familiar with), but somebody decided to make Joe into a "Manchurian Candidate" of sorts.
Finally, as I previously noted, Trump is a natural "circus barker"; Joe simply isn't.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
I will not be surprised if Bidden withdraws from the running at the Democratic convention. Whether gracefully or under pressure remains to be seen, and whether the pressure is obvious or near invisible likewise uncertain. If such happens I would think the chance of Kamala being the substitute is near zero. Anybody that thinks he will successfully make it through a second term is probably hallucinating. Major question: who will be the alternative? I see few of the current Democratic bright boys (or girls) being able to generate much enthusiasm, either. How about the possibility of RFK, Jr. returning to the Democrat fold? He seems a more plausible than the run of dingbat Democrat governors currently getting a lot of press coverage.
Posts: 2953 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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LBJ, regarding whom I was on record during October '67 would be the case, announced during March '68.
Joe's last chance was the March SOTU, but instead "his handlers" hopped him up "on something" and he went on TV like he was, say, Obama. Joe simply is not an orator and fortunately for himself, he did not need to be one to win during '20.
This time around, it's going to be a bit different.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Mr. Harris, I think RFK, Jr. has "burned all too many bridges" within the regular Democratic party to be considered (his Super Bowl ad sure didn't help). So far as the other "possibles" such as, Gavin, Gretchen, and Kathy, all are Governors, which for better or worse gives them experience in managing large organizations.
Even if the Democrats have fatalistically accepted, as have I, that Trump will be POTUS47, may as well run Kamala, so that the others can stay fresh for '28 (assuming we have a free election and not some Putin-like one).
And what if somehow Kamala won; she just might be a latent Harry Truman, who despite a low point 22% job approval, is regarded by the Notable Scholars as our sixth greatest POTUS.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Today, The New York Times reports that Trump leads Joe in five of the six "battleground" states.
Why the Fathers caved in to the agrarian interests at the Convention simply escapes me. The repeal of the Electoral College Constitutional provisions (Article II and XIII Amendment) would be impossible, but that doesn't make it fair.
Why should I even bother to vote (of course I will; it's my duty) when my vote is only worth 10% of, say, Dick or Liz Cheney's (you know where they live, you know where I live; just do the math)?
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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quote:Originally posted by George Harris: I will not be surprised if Biden withdraws from the running at the Democratic convention. Whether gracefully or under pressure remains to be seen, and whether the pressure is obvious or near invisible likewise uncertain.
Mr. Harris, I wish I could agree but as I noted "that train has left the station". Now the report from The Times that Joe is behind in five of the six battlegrounds; there is little time left to turn things around.
Joe does not like chaos and instability; and presides over a workplace where such is not tolerated. On that point, just think of the chaos and instability he would cause if he were to withdraw now.
Some might say that he wants the "Pyrrhic Victory" of likely winning the popular vote - but that is not how presidential elections are decided.
But one thing is a virtual certainty now; Trump will be POTUS47.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Remember when there were Republicans venting on Clinton-
"When you have a president that in my opinion has cheated on his wife, he will cheat on the American people. When you have a president that can't tell the truth about his mistakes and own up to them, he won't be able to tell the truth to the American people. And he hasn't." - Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX)
Posts: 1570 | From: Ocala, FL | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
The editorial board of the Boston Globe has joined the media chorus calling for Biden to bow out.
quote:… (I)n the view of this board, and a growing number of other editorial pages and Democratic officials, the greater risk lies in allowing Biden to continue as the party’s standard-bearer. Serious questions are now in play about his ability to complete the arduous work of being leader of the free world. Can he negotiate with a hostile Republican Congress, dangerous foreign powers, or even fractious rivals within his own Cabinet? The nation’s confidence has been shaken.
And can he convince the American electorate of his fitness to lead? If not, all other questions become moot. So consider the polls: The president was trailing in most of them before that disastrous debate, and now the chances that he can win over wavering independent voters, much less hold onto loyal ones, are rapidly fading. …
posted
Obviously after the Debate, it is a virtual certainty that Trump will be POTUS47.
But as I noted at another topic, Joe's staff is extremely loyal to him with only two "visible" departures - a Press Secretary and a Chief of Staff, who is now "back in the game" as Campaign Manager.
This means that if Joe is to withdraw (lot going on behind the scenes right now - vote of confidence by the Democrat Governors notwithstanding), he likely will pass the torch to Kamala, who hasn't got a prayer against Trump.
As noted at another topic, the Democrats should pick a candidate from a "Bled" state such as Pennsylvania (Gov. Shapiro) or Michigan (Gretchen). But I'll bet those and others want to stay out so as to be "fresh for '28".
So it's time for Kubler-Ross Phase 5 and accept it's Trump. Maybe he will choose to step down in '28, but then he might not.
While we're at it, get ready for a change to this oath:
I pledge allegiance to the flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands.
One nation, under God and the leadership of our President, Donald Trump, and for all who are deserving, liberty and justice.
Anybody think I'm kidding?, we shall see.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Times column appearing today why all powerful people - Joe et al - just can't step away:
Fair Use;
quote:There’s a formal name for this trap: escalation of commitment to a losing course of action. In the face of impending failure, extensive evidence shows, instead of rethinking our plans, we often double down on our decisions. It feels better to be a fighter than a quitter.
One of the tragedies of the human condition is that we use our big brains not to make rational decisions but rather to rationalize the decisions we’ve already made. We stick around too long in dead-end jobs. We stay in unhappy marriages even after friends have counseled us to leave. We stand by candidates even after they violate our principles.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Naturally the SCOTUS Decision to hold sitting presidents virtually immune, such will apply to Joe as it equally applies to Trump. But considering what a vindictive person Trump has proven to be (inciting a riot and once started doing as good as nothing to stop it; theft of classified information), will he, "find something"?
addendum: this Peggy Noonan column in The Journal is "provocative".
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Radio host Lenard McKelvey, aka “Charlamagne tha God”, the man to whom Biden said back in 2020 “If you have a problem figuring out whether you’re for me or Trump, then you ain’t black”, has added his voice to the demands for Biden to step down.
quote:Charlamagne tha God pushed Tuesday for Democrats to take on President Biden at the Democratic National Convention (DNC).
“All I hear is ego,” the radio host said on “The Breakfast Club” in response to recent comments by the president in which he dared other Democrats to face off with him at the upcoming convention.
“And I hope they take him up on his offer,” he continued. “Every single Democrat who feels like the Democrats can’t win if President Biden is the nominee needs to challenge him at the convention. Take him up on his offer.”
On MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” on Monday, Biden called in to the show and said he was “getting frustrated by the elites in the party, ‘Oh, they know so much more.’ Any of these guys that don’t think I should run, run against me. Announce for president, challenge me at the convention.” …
posted
"All I hear is ego." Sounds absolutely correct. And I would suspect that most of it is from Hunter and Jill.
Posts: 2953 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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posted
From the "dead heat" in the polls pre-Debate, to the six points estimated Trump picked up from that, and to now my guess of another five "sympathy points" from the assassination attempt, gives Trump an eleven point advantage, which, aside from carrying enough "battlegrounds", would give Trump a "decisive" victory.
Just may as well, Joe, continue to run, because no Democrat can now beat Trump.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
That begs the question as to what the Democrats actually stand for, particularly if they are indeed issues that are detrimental to the Republic and why they are selling them and thus giving the easy advantage to Trump issues-wise.
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I fully expect the New York conviction to be dismissed as well. Somebody who came within one inch of losing his life (that's the estimate) deserves sympathy.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
I would have thought, and as I noted, that Trump would have gotten a five point "sympathy bump" after the assassination attempt, but, according to Newsweek, such does not appear to be the case.
Fair Use:
quote:Donald Trump has not received a poll boost in the first presidential election survey conducted since the failed assassination attempt on Saturday.
The poll, conducted by Morning Consult of 2,045 registered voters on Monday, reveals that Trump is leading Joe Biden by just one percentage point with 46 percent, compared to the president's 45 percent. The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Begs the question as to who Morning Consult polled.
Edit: Axios now saying that Democratic reps are reviving a push to replace Biden.
quote:Democratic members of Congress are reviving a fight over President Biden’s candidacy following a brief respite in the wake of Saturday’s assassination attempt against former President Trump, Axios has learned.
Some lawmakers are uneasy about the Democratic National Committee’s plans to forge ahead with a virtual roll call vote to nominate Biden weeks before the Democratic convention.
“People are back to being angry at Biden and a push to sign on to this letter is going around … the ‘replace Biden’ movement is back,” a House Democrat told Axios. …
The DNC moved toward a virtual vote before the debate in response to Ohio threatening to not put Biden on the ballot because the party’s convention was after their deadline. Ohio changed the rule, but the DNC has pushed forward — arguing that the legislature could in theory reverse itself. …
posted
Mr. Helfner, I would guess that after, first, the Debate, then followed by the assassination attempt, the Democratic "powers that be" held that Trump was unbeatable, and if Joe wanted to be the sacrifical lamb, let him. Keep the others "fresh for '28".
Now this poll comes out today, suggesting that the "bump" from these two events has either eroded or simply was never there. So now it's time to "bench the past his prime quarterback and reach for an 'up and comer'".
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
I noted further up the thread that Nikki Haley had not endorsed Trump when she dropped out, as Ron DeSantis did when he dropped out. During the convention, she gave Trump (in her words) “strong endorsement”.
I would be surprised if Morning Consult was actually able to poll conservative Republicans, who would know who they are and actively avoid them.
Posts: 852 | Registered: Mar 2002
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posted
Looks like Chuck Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Hakeem Jeffries and Adam Schiff are now among the voices calling for Biden’s withdrawal.
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posted
While, as MSNBC reported, Joe has "mild COVID" and is out of sight in Rehoboth to recover, I think much will go on behind the scenes.
If Trump wins by a landslide, which I'm not about to dispute, there goes the "down ballot" for Democrats - and with that, control of at least one House.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Remember the song from "Little Shop of Horrors," "Suddenly Seymour"? I can't help thinking about a new one called "Conveniently Covid."
Posts: 1570 | From: Ocala, FL | Registered: Dec 2006
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posted
This NBC article conveys a dark and even depressing tone.
quote:… Since a disastrous debate in Atlanta upended the trajectory of his campaign three weeks ago, Biden has again and again attempted to dig in, bucking efforts to dislodge him from power.
But there is now a palpable sense that the ground has shifted underneath him, according to five people with knowledge of the situation, even among some of the president’s most defiant internal backers who now believe the writing is on the wall.
“We’re close to the end,” a person close to Biden said.
That person, who previously doubted Biden would ever step aside, acknowledged that it’s still the president’s decision but joined in the array of Biden allies who say he is nearing a point of no return. …
… A person who spoke with a senior campaign official said a sense of a new reality has fallen over the campaign.
“They’re finally realizing: It’s a ‘when’, not ‘if’,” the person said. …
posted
I think the most recent for a timeline would be '72 when Thomas Eagleton dropped out as VP from the McGovern ticket and was replaced by Sargant Shriver.
Of course that year the Democrats could just have nominated Yogi the Bear, as they had no chance against Nixon.
McGovern only carried only The District and Massachusetts.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Very interesting to learn where Mark Halperin landed, Mr. Helfner.
I first learned of Mr Halperin when he was a commentator on a now-cancelled show called "The Circus", which aired on Showtime. With other hosts like Alex Wagner and Jennifer Palmieri, you can guess which way the "slant" leaned.
He left that show on "suspicious grounds" (hands not where should be), and now to learn he is on Newsmax, sure shows $$$$ talk louder than ideology.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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"For those tuning in late", Joe Louis was considered the greatest fighter of his era ('30's-40's). But he "just plain stayed too long"; and had "issues" managing his $$$.
What was sad, but indicative of the times, was that most celebrities who signed up to "entertain the troops", all (White males) were Commissioned Officers. However, Joe Louis, who did same, was only Sgt. Joe Louis.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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You're a great American who has devoted his life to public service.
He's endorsed Kamala; but lest we forget it's just an endorsement. Joe's delegates are now "free agents" and not bound to anyone. Further, if the eventual nominee is to access the some $110M "campaign kitty", it will first have to be returned to the donors (no tax consequences; the contributions were not deductible when made), then the donors can choose to donate those funds to "whoever's" campaign.
So sad it has to end this way.
Finally to Mr. Helfner, Wow, did Mark Halperin ever call it "on mark'. I actually watched him for about 15 min on Newsmax Sunday night. He seemed quite level headed and "balanced".
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Not so sure Biden walked off the stage under his own power or was dragged off the stage by those around him that finally realized he was a sinking ship and these rats did not want to go down with him.
Posts: 2953 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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posted
KDOV can handle a VC-25 (a B-747 that is Air Force One in the vernacular) and if Joe is to return to KADW today, I'm sure that departure will be live covered (with of course the MSNBC and CNN reporters observing Joe one way, and the FOX and Newsmax reporters another).
By the way, when Joe goes to his Wilmington home, KILG cannot accommodate that aircraft, so he "must get by" with a C-32 (a B-757 that the VP, SecState, and SecDef normally use).
Author's note:stationed Dover AFB Nov 65 through Jun 67
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Mr. Harris, I hope, and like to think, that Joe's stable and loyal staff (really, you have to admit that his staff has been loyal, with only two visible defections to date - and one, former CS Ron Klain, came back to be his campaign manager) will be there to guide him through these final 5mo 27da of his presidency. If any "bad boys" try to "pull something", I'm sure the response would be same as if Joe had his faculties, which I fear he no longer has.
Various reports hold that Kamala has sufficient delegates now supporting her (they're not locked in owing to primary victories, lest we forget) to have the nomination. So much for a "back to '52" open convention. I guess the only institution remaining with such is the Roman Catholic Church to select a Pope (think they'd best get ready for just that soon).
Finally, "utter dumb-dumb" had to be Speaker Johnson getting out there saying Joe should resign now. Once again, his staff is experienced and loyal, and for Trump, he would find himself running against a "sitting president", with all the "trappings" of the office, rather than merely a VP, who really hasn't got a job beyond being a "stage prop" at the pleasure of the POTUS.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
Looks like Joe got a C-32 for his flight KDOV to KADW.
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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posted
There remains some question as to who is really holding the reins of the country, particularly with Harris on the campaign trail.
Posts: 852 | Registered: Mar 2002
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posted
Mr. Helfner, no matter Joe's cognitive state, which along with you, I don't think is very good, he has an extremely loyal staff which, save a Press Secretary (former CS Klain is apparently back in the picture in some capacity), has been on the job since Day 1.
With "123 and a wake up" to go, I think "they'll hold it together".
And disturbing as this thought may be, the election could possibly end up being Former President Trump v. PRESIDENT Harris. Someone having to transition to a new job, while campaigning to keep it, would be unprecedented in our history, and just might be an "institutional overload".
Posts: 10781 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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