posted
Starting with Nord Stream II and snowballing from there. And quite a (perfect) phone call to President Zelensky, that appears to have induced panic in Kyev with talk of the city being “sacked”.
Now the State Department is claiming that if Russia makes any move on the country’s borders, the selfsame pipeline would be “at the bottom of the sea”. Given the Afghanistan travesty, Putin has no fear, nor do his allies in Germany.
Posts: 729 | Registered: Mar 2002
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Too bad Ukraine couldn't have joined N A TO when it had the chance. That and a EU membership would have been a real thorn under Putin's saddle.
Posts: 516 | From: Richmond VA USA | Registered: Mar 2004
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For one, there is that broken promise made by the late George H.W. Bush to Russia that there would be no NATO involvement in former Soviet satellite states, which Putin routinely rubs in the face of the West.
For another, the EU is not what it claims to be. It is a vehicle to empower Germany, who for the record recognized the independence of Croatia and Slovenia in 1991 which went against US policy. The involvement of US forces in the Bosnia conflict mushroomed out of that, leading to more states to come under Germany’s umbrella. Even now, Germany is actually taking Putin’s side in the Ukraine affair, undermining NATO.
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Given how things have gone so far elsewhere, any loss of face from staying out of it would be far less than the fools we would make ourselves look like getting into it given the current inability of our current government and military leadership to do anything anywhere close to right.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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This Times Guest Columnist holds that while Joe has done much right to control this crisis, his own traits may be his undoing:
We report, you decide:
The mistakes of the Biden administration on national security policy have not been mistakes of interagency coordination or errant cabinet members. They have largely been mistakes of the president’s own making: loudly proclaiming to “put human rights back at the center of our foreign policy” without actually doing so, linking “foreign policy for the middle class” with trade protectionism, failing to establish an effective international economic policy that helps reduce reliance on China and, most awfully, the decisions about Afghanistan.
My belief is that Mr. Biden’s troubles stem from arrogance that he’s right — has always been right — on issues where his recommended policies were not adopted when he was a senator or the vice president, specifically when it came to decisions over the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
We have not been in any kind of shooting War with Russia since their Revolution, when we sent forces to fight with the White Russians. I think the results, if such is to be the case at this time will prove far more catastrophic.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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quote:The director of the Central Intelligence Agency conveyed our knowledge of military deployment and our opposition to Moscow. The director of national intelligence shared information with NATO allies. The secretary of state warned about Russian disinformation operations. The secretary of defense and the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff have projected steadiness and readiness, with the defense secretary emphasizing that “a move on Ukraine will accomplish the very thing Russia says it does not want — a NATO alliance strengthened and resolved on its western flank.” The administration is creatively orchestrating gas supplies to Europe should Russia cut them off.
NATO also responded strongly, reassuring its frontline states by considering the deployment of additional alliance military forces, and reaffirmed its commitment to including potential new members. Keeping 30 countries together is a huge achievement when President Vladimir Putin of Russia has Ukraine in his cross hairs and is threatening to shoot the hostage unless NATO reverses 30 years of European security. …
Trying to see what was done “right” here.
Remember the promise made and subsequently broken by George H.W. Bush and a number of his successors because newly-unified Germany started a hawkish foreign policy by recognizing the independence of Slovenia and Croatia from Yugoslavia, that promise being no NATO involvement in former Soviet territories particularly in Europe. Also, and this is not widely mentioned, ever since the late 90s war in the Balkans the control of NATO was handed over to the EU, in which Germany is the dominant state.
It is both Nord Stream 2 reversal and the Afghanistan debacle that gave Russia the impression of the USA’s weakness.
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I suspect that Putin is operating on the old "Sticks and stones may break my bones but words will never hurt me" as a foreign relations concept. Since we walked out of Afganistan and left all non-Taliban people hanging out to dry, or more accurately to be tortured and killed, the US has not credibility to lose, so we should not even be wasting paper on this one. If there is anything worse than Biden sending troops in, I can't think of it right now, unless he decides, with arrogance and ignorance to try to do whatever it takes to stop Russia, which could easily lead to a major war. Over what? Nothing that would be of any benefit to anyone. Plus, it would be one the US would be almost certain to lose.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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Oh, the last thing that Biden would ever have US troops do is fight, particularly after warning all US citizens to flee.
Doesn’t matter that NATO’s credibility is at state, but not for the reasons one might think. And this is another ploy by the EU to empower itself militarily.
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Even though we both were there for the same one (a loss; and for roundly overlapping tours), I must acknowledge I was shot at on six different occasions - and all I was expected to do was take cover.
Mr. Helfner, if the EU seeks to become some kind of military power bypassing NATO, they's better start learning to spend a bit more than 2% of their GNP on defense. Austria (not in NATO, but in the EU) probably has enough troops (and fancy uniforms) to put on a parade and a couple of 50yo fighter aircraft for a "flyover". They'd last about as long against Putin as did Netherlands against Hitler.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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There are plans in place already for a EU military, with the Bundeswehr’s high command in charge. Many member states have already committed sizable portions of their own militaries to work under the high command thereof; it would not take much to unite all of the disparate military forces.
But take note again that Germany is siding a great deal with Russia on this matter, using its power to forbid member states to assist Ukraine militarily. They aren’t going to let Nord Stream 2 go, no matter what happens to Ukraine in the debacle. Molotov-Ribbentrop redux?
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Possibly a premature hope, but, if as this Times columnist Thomas L. Freidman thinks just might be possible, the world will be a better place if Joe can pull this off:
Fair Use:
The Ukraine story is far from over. But if Vladimir Putin opts to back away from invading Ukraine, even temporarily, it’s because Joe Biden — that guy whose right-wing critics suggest is so deep in dementia he wouldn’t know Kyiv from Kansas or AARP from NATO — has matched every Putin chess move with an effective counter of his own.
Putin has been on such a run of outmaneuvering the West and destabilizing our politics that it is easy to overrate him. It is also hard to believe a word that comes out of his mouth. But if Putin was sincere when he said Tuesday that he was “ready to continue on the negotiating track” to ensure that Ukraine never joins NATO and was also pulling back some of his menacing forces — U.S. officials say there’s no sign of that yet — it’s because Biden’s statecraft has given Putin pause.
It's all transactional with Putin. If he thinks he can attack Ukraine and they surrender, they're back under his thumb.
But if both Joe and columnist Tom Freidman hold, Putin has more to lose from not being able to complete world currency transactions ($,€,¥) and Europe can get the energy they need from other sources, his oligarch pals will cease to be just that and they even could conspire to overthrow him.
Khrushchev backed down when he realized JFK meant business. Being the "Sov at heart" he appears to be, Putin could well do same and this crisis ends without a shot.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Thomas Friedman; no comment. As far as the EU and Putin’s Russia go, they have been working to undermine the greenback for decades, and sorry to say Biden is aiding them in that goal.
And Biden certainly is no JFK, no matter JFK’s own foibles and faults.
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The news was fashioned to appear that Khrushchev backed down. Truth is JFK also agreed to remove missiles he had installed in Turkey, which started the conflict. The public was conveniently not told about that at the time.
Posts: 516 | From: Richmond VA USA | Registered: Mar 2004
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Mr. Helfner, does Putin think after Ukraine surrenders (does he think it will be an Anschluss?; he will get in the least a "bloody nose"), the ₽ will become a world currency?
Now we ask; would Putin be initiating this act of aggression if Trump remained in power (duly elected or "otherwise")? I'll bet Putin envisioned a "triple alliance" (think the Yalta "photo op") with Xi in place of the UK - and he of course in the center.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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quote:Originally posted by Gilbert B Norman: Now we ask; would Putin be initiating this act of aggression if Trump remained in power (duly elected or "otherwise")? I'll bet Putin envisioned a "triple alliance" (think the Yalta "photo op") with Xi in place of the UK - and he of course in the center.
You think Trump would ally with Putin? Maybe when pigs fly. Otherwise, not a chance. Remember, it was Biden that quit objecting to the pipeline Putin wanted to build, not Trump.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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Agreed. Also comes to mind when Hillary declared that she “want(ed) very much to have a strong Russia” back when she was secretary of state in 2010.
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Messrs. Harris and Helfner, let's first dispense with our differences regarding Hillary. To me, it didn't matter whether I liked her or not; what mattered is that she brought more qualifications to the table to be POTUS since Bush41. Her opponent had none whatsoever and did not develop any over his four years in office.
Now I'm sorry but so far as I'm concerned, Trump and his , let's be nice and call them colleagues, sought to install him as a dictator. Hitler, Franco, Mussoluini, Putin, and Xi were all duly elected to one branch of government or the other, but once there, by one devious means or the other, grabbed sole power. Trump and his cabal, were plotting same.
There was an excellent. Times Magazine article a week ago regarding Michael Flynn (I withhold use of his military title because to me, he has disgraced the uniform he once wore) and his gang that were planning the overthrow of '20 election results even before Election Day. They sensed that Trump was going to lose, which to them simply meant someone else had more Electoral Votes cast in their favor. When the election turned out to be closer than expected, they swung into action first requesting recounts, then seeking redress from state Judiciaries, to outright coercion of election officials, and finally to January 6, which included a death threat to the VPOTUS. If that is not seeking to overthrow a duly elected incoming government, then I'm at a loss to know what is.
Now probably more to point regarding the Ukraine crisis, this Tom Friedman column appearing yesterday lays much the blame upon expanding NATO right to Russia's border rather than to "satellites" as was when the treaty was signed.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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We’re back to “qualifications”, I see. Time spent in various high offices is not such a thing; we have been over that, and the “can of worms” principle still applies (e.g. the unavenged blood of ambassador Chris Stevens).
Pushing the “Russia, Russia, Russia” lie is going to bring the tone of the thread down; please leave that alone, is all I ask, particularly in light of the Mueller verdict and what Durham has recently uncovered. And use of the “D-word” threatens to do so even more; such people do not relinquish power, and comparing the electoral processes of parliamentary systems (some ostensibly, such as in Red China) is simply a false comparison.
As far as Flynn goes, being entrapped by the FBI while sneakily denying constitutional rights on Comey’s part (via mendacity) does not qualify as disgracing one’s uniform, unless there is some kind of legal rivalry between federal police agencies and military and Flynn should have dispensed in a bloody manner.
I do agree somewhat about the NATO expansion matter, since that dates back to 1991 and George H.W. Bush’s promise to Yeltsin that was broken by (of all members) Germany via their recognition of the independence of Croatia and Slovenia from the former Yugoslavia. This led directly to the Bosnia conflict once Yugoslavia destabilized further, and is one of the political positions that Putin still demagogues on to this day.
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Turns out so-called sanctions do not involve targeting Russia’s energy sector or their involvement in the SWIFT system. Waiting for the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to be bombed…
Russian collaboration? By shutting down our energy sector and buying from Russia instead, the current administration is complicit in this invasion, period.
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This topic seems to dominate the news cycle these days. Kind of overwhelming.
Germany is using this as an excuse to turn more militaristic. Zelenskiy wants in as far as the EU is concerned; it really is remarkable how he happens to be holding off the Red Army under apocalyptic threats of offensive nuclear warfare. The EU seemingly took the lead in terms of punishing Russia by shutting down Nord Stream 2 and excluding from SWIFT oil transactions.
I did not watch Biden’s SOTU.
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While best left to professional musicians, the Ukrainian National Anthem is indeed an inspiring work of music. May it be performed, until Kiev falls, just as was the Polish National Anthem played until Warsaw fell thirty five days after Hitler invaded September 1, 1939.
An aside: my Mother and Father were married on September 2, 1939.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Quinnipiac poll from two days ago shows consensus on banning oil imports from Russia and the same for a US military response if Russia were to hit a NATO country.
This one caught my eye, however:
quote:As the world witnesses what is happening to Ukraine, Americans were asked what they would do if they were in the same position as Ukrainians are now: stay and fight or leave the country? A majority (55 percent) say they would stay and fight, while 38 percent say they would leave the country. Republicans say 68 - 25 percent and independents say 57 - 36 percent they would stay and fight, while Democrats say 52 - 40 percent they would leave the country.
Substantial support for “a rifle behind every blade of grass” (whoever might have originated that), but a lot of a certain segment of the population seem to want to make themselves targets by attempting to become refugees.
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I think the "rifle behind every blade of grass" was said by one of the Japanese general when the suggestion was made by some to plan an invasion of the western US.
As to the ones that want to leave, my thought in essence, is, "can we help you pack?" And "Don't let the door bang your butt on your way out.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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I’ve heard of the reputed attribution to Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku (whose name is interesting, since his family name means “mountain roots” and his given name is the number 56, his father’s age when he was born apparently); if there’s one good that came out of the internet, it is being able to second-guess every attribution and sift out misattributions although not always easily.
Those who would flee if this country is attacked had better not act surprised if no other country welcomes them with open arms, what with the damage they are doing to our country’s reputation now that they are in power at present.
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quote:Originally posted by irishchieftain: I’ve heard of the reputed attribution to Admiral Yamamoto Isoroku (whose name is interesting, since his family name means “mountain roots” and his given name is the number 56, his father’s age when he was born apparently)
Thank you. Now that you say it, Yamamoto rings a bell.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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Mr. Helfner, do you consider anyone who is an expatriate, i.e. one who stays longer than the visa granted to tourists (the passport stamp you get when entering), for whatever the reason as having "fled" the country?
While I take no umbrage whatever to your statement, it would appear that I come from a family of expatriates. I'm the only one in three generations who has not been an "expat". While I've been overseas a good number of times in this life visiting four continents, it has never been for longer than that "stamp at the airport" allows.
1) My Mother's family emigrated to Salzburg during '34 because "they hated FDR". Golly, wonder why they came back during '38?
2) My Sister resided overseas, UK and HKG, '71-'89. "International Banking" with one financial house or the other.
3) A Nephew resided in the UK "doing who knows what" from '88 to '94. He is, however, now back in NY; happily married and with a stable career as a "Mad Man"(advertising).
4) My Niece resides in Sydney NSW AU; her musician husband is from there and "couldn't make it in New York". God knows how they "make it down there", and I don't ask.
Finally, I have two friends, independent of each other, who have said to me that if Trump is re-elected in '24, "they're gone".
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Well, Quinnipiac did not present a “whatever the reason” scenario, but a specific one, and I was discussing that solely.
But just to entertain that red herring (with all due respect), one can easily revisit the number of celebrities who claimed they would depart the country (rather than outright flee as a refugee) if the man who became No. 45 would accede the position of chief executive, yet they did not.
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As far as all these people who say that if . . .[u]whoever[/u] is elected or if [u]whatever[/u] happens they are going to leave the country, my attitude is, either put your money where your mouth is and do it or shut up. We have heard this several times very publicly and then thundering silence when it does not happen.
In my previous life in Taiwan, my son who stayed to study Chinese and then went two years of college asked what I thought about him joining their military at the time of one of the PRC's saber rattling. I said, if you think you ought to, go for it. These people are worth protecting.
On a different note, one family I knew that was in Singapore with a missions work was told that they could get permanent residency, but if they did, then their son would be obligated to serve in the Singapore military. They did, and he did, even though a US citizen. Have lost contact so I am not sure, but I believe he stayed in beyond his obligated minimum. The "boy" would now be pushing 40.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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As far as all these people who say that if . . .[u]whoever[/u] is elected or if [u]whatever[/u] happens they are going to leave the country, my attitude is, either put your money where your mouth is and do it or shut up. We have heard this several times very publicly and then thundering silence when it does not happen.
In my previous life in Taiwan, my son who stayed to study Chinese and then went two years of college asked what I thought about him joining their military at the time of one of the PRC's saber rattling. I said, if you think you ought to, go for it. These people are worth protecting.
On a different note, one family I knew that was in Singapore with a missions work was told that they could get permanent residency, but if they did, then their son would be obligated to serve in the Singapore military. He was 12 or 13 at that time, and said it was OK with him. They stayed, and he did serve, even though a US citizen. Have lost contact so I am not sure, but I believe he stayed in beyond his obligated minimum. The "boy" would now be pushing 40.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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While by now it simply inevitable that Ukraine will have to surrender and how much of their national identity they will be allowed to retain, such as becoming a "puppet satellite" as is Belarus, is anyone's guess.
The ultimate disposition of the Polish MIG aircraft, on which Ukranian pilots may or may not be qualified to fly under combat conditions, will have little to no effect on the outcome.
Somehow, I think "Vladimer The Great" is envisioning a '25 rendering of the "Big Three" photo ops from either Teheran or Yalta, with a "cast" of he, Trump, and Xi. Oh, but which one would get the center seat once held by FDR. The boys can fight that one out amongst themselves.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Trump has nothing to do with this, nor is he a leftist like Messrs. Hsi and Putin. Please refrain from the red herrings. It was Biden who mentioned a “minor incursion” and that Putin “has to do something”.
And observe what is happening in the EU as a result of this. Letting Ukraine go would be tantamount to their surrender, so this is an excuse to put their long-standing joining of militaries under one high command into play. Since all of the pertinent EU technocrats envision “the spirit of Charlemagne” animating the continent as a consequence, this would herald a sudden transition from a dovish foreign policy to very hawkish, to put it mildly.
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Well Mr. Helfner, at present Trump does not hold office, but come '25, there is all too real possibility that he will become POTUS 47.
"Spirit of Charlemagne" or "Spirit of Peter the Great"; all the same. Just greedy demagogues who can't accept what they have, and what they want is more.
"Vladimir The Great" is just one more. He's going to conquer Ukraine, but not without the whole world realizing what a tyrant he is.
A Sirius XM channel, 76 Classical, to which my auto's radio is tuned, has pledged to play the Ukrainian National Anthem each day until she is defeated, which is inevitable. This is much like a Polish radio station during '39 that vowed to play their anthem periodically so long as the nation did not fall to the Nazis.
It's hopless; but let us hope.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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Trump is no ally of either Putin or Xi, but Biden via his deliberate inaction shows himself to be. Please let's put the old lie to bed.
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Mr. Helfner, Joe will be gone in a year. Come '24, Kamala will join "the club" comprising Tyler, Fillmore, A. Johnson, and Arthur of successor VP's who were denied the nomination. Trump will join with Grover Cleveland as the only president's to serve non-consecutive terms - and I will lose a very special and dear friend when she and her husband emigrate (think South Africa).
Putting away the crystal ball.
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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What else is new; how long did they "talk" at Panmunjom; how about Paris?
But why don't they just appoint me as a final and binding arbitrator? So here's what will "go down":
1) Immediate cease fire and orderly withdrawal of Russian armed forces from Ukraine.
2) Let Russia have those two provinces in Eastern Ukraine that are culturally Russian.
3) Establish a fifteen mile wide DMZ around Ukraine which would include all contiguous sovereignties. The zone would extend 7.5 miles into each (Poland; your military base that touches the Ukrainian border wil have to go elsewhere).
4) Return confiscated property to the Russian "oligarchs".
5) Remove all economic sanctions, including the NG pipeline to Germany, that have been imposed resulting from this conflict.
6) Re-establish access to previously existing airspace by civilian aircraft presently blocked.
That's all, folks!!!
Posts: 10432 | From: Clarendon Hills, IL USA (BNSF Chicago Sub MP 18.71) | Registered: Apr 2002
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NO! Putin should not be allowed to gain anything from his aggression. Right now he is feeling his oats. He is probably not aware that the Russian troops are performing as poorly as they are because everyone is afraid to tell him. Dictators do tend to shoot the messengers that bring bad news. To give him anything he has occupied will only encourage further aggression. Try this: You stop now, pull everything military back to no less than 10 km from the Ukraine border and we won't bomb you into oblivion. Make up your mind within 24 hours or bombs will start falling on your military facilities. If that does not get your attention, then we will hunt you down. WW2 type sanctuaries will not work anymore.
Posts: 2906 | From: Olive Branch MS | Registered: Nov 2002
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