And that decision will be the equivalent of putting the Reform Council out of business, ARC Vice Chairman Paul M. Weyrich said. "If they don't, it's a vote to kill ARC." he said this morning.
Yesterday three council members, including Chairman Gil Carmichael, told Trains.com that the vote was to call. By Weyrich's tally, the council will vote 7-4 to delay, perhaps until January, a finding that Amtrak won't meet the congressional deadline.
But Weyrich says the January date could slip, which would give Congress the opportunity to pass legislation to eliminate the self-sufficiency deadline-and with it the council's role in monitoring Amtrak's progress.
"Nobody will make a committent" to a January vote, Weyrich said. "In the meantime, [Senator Fritz] Hollings is moving forward with his bill to kill our authority to do this."
Although many observers have given Hollings' RAIL-21 bill little chance of passage, Weyrich disagrees, and says it would prevent any meaningful overhaul of passenger rail.
"This will be the last chance for any kind of real oversight of Amtrak," Weyrich said. "Congress doesn't do it."
Congress established the Reform Council to monitor Amtrak's progress toward operational self-sufficiency.
If and when the couincil rules that Amtrak won't meet the deadline-pulling the so-called sunset trigger-Amtrak and the ARC would have Three months to react. Amtrak must send to Congress a plan for its own to settle its debts, while the ARC must submit a rationalization and restructuring plan for passenger rail.
It would serve no purpose to delay the decision any longer, Weyrich said. "The data is clear" that Amtrak won't meet the December 202 deadline, he said.
Independent observers- from the transportation secretary to the Department of Transportation inspector general and The General Accounting Office- agree that Amtrak almost certainly will miss the deadline.
Even Amtrak President George Warrington- who all along has insisted that Amtrak is on a glidepath to operational self-sufficiency- says the September 11 terrorist attacks have only increased pressure on the railroad.
"With the economy contracting and public expecations about security and safety rising, the self-sufficiency deadline will force us to choose very soon between two evils," he told Congress last week. "Meet the self-sufficiency requirement by takimg on more debt, mortaging assets and cutting back service severly; or preserve the current system and increase security in the short run, risking a statutory process which... could lead to setttle its debts."
Many in Congress are now questioning the wisdom of the deadline. And in light of the transportation crisis produced by the September 11 attacks, the Bush administration has urged ARC to postpone its decision.
Carmichael backs a delay, which also would give the council time to consider a report on Amtrak's financial picture, due November 16 from the DOT inspector general.
The most strident Amtrak opponents on the council, however, say September 11 only confirmed that Amtrak is not a viable transportation alternative. Its ridership was down about 6 percent in September, despite the post-attack surge in ridership, Weyrich noted.
"You can't have that kind of thing and continue to pretend its one day going to be self-sufficient. It's not going to happen," Weyrich said.
What needs to be done, he said, is for the nation to develop a restructured passenger rail system that focues on 300-mile corridors. Airlines don't necessarily want to serve those markets, he said, and rail can be competitive in such relatively short hauls.
Well guys out there what is your reaction to this?
I don't believe Amtrak was ever on its way to operational self-sufficiency, either before or after Sept. 11. I do believe Amtrak can be an important player in transportation, possibly as an 'all weather second choice' for people.
Today the ARC voted 6-5 to pull the trigger on Amtrak. Evidently they now have 90 days to develop a restructuring plan and Amtrak now must submit a liquidation plan. I don't understand how this could be done before the actual 2002 deadline. Suddenly Amtrak has one year less to meet its obligation. That ain't fair!
Gilbert Carmichal the ARC Chairman said Amtrak would probably survive in some form.
I'm not sure if this is a bad thing, or a blessing in disguise. It may force Congress to deal with the issue in a realistic manner, in light of the current transportation crisis, and put together a proper national rail system. Or it may just give people like John McCain an excuse to do a hatchet job.
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Trust God, love your neighbor, and never mistake opinion for truth.
-Mr. Toy
On a more personally selfish note, I recently booked a sleeper on the Sunset Limited from Orlando to LA in April 2002 ... Should I be wondering what the service will be like? Or maybe whether we'll actually hear "All Aboard!"?
Or ....?
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Elias Valley Railroad (N-scale)
www.geocities.com/evrr
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I've always felt Amtrak would survive the deadline more-or-less maintaining the "status quo". Now, I'm nervous. Still, I half-expect some sort of Congressional action which scraps the deadline (already proposed) and comes up with barely enough money to keep Amtrak going a few more years; postponing again any debate on Amtrak's future. Amtrak may be far from ideal, but preserving it also maintains a national network of passenger trains - many reform (I use the word "reform" loosely) proposals do not.
I am a cautious optimist. But the timing of the ARC vote looks pretty fishy to me. Why couldnt they have waited until 2002?
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Trust God, love your neighbor, and never mistake opinion for truth.
-Mr. Toy