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I don't know how many times, during the last 20-25 yrs, one has seen news items regarding LA to Las Vegas High Speed Rail. It's getting tedious. However, the following is a little more interesting.
Brightline has bought out XpressWest. If a Brightline HSR train really is in on the horizon, Las Vegas to Victorville for starters then a later connection to LA.
Richard
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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Richard, Brightline has had remarkable success in slaying the opposition to date. They have their friends in the right places - and have since the days of Henry Flagler.
Are they prepared to ride into town and take on Sammy the Snake, Tuffy the Turtle, Linda Ronstadt, and Moonbeam himself, lest there be anything perceived as "competition" to his CAHSR?
George Harris Member # 2077
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Brightline to Las Vegas in not competition to Calif HSR. Some of the CAHSR studies assume that the Las Vegas line with enter LA on HSR tracks, but it will not compete with the HSR, as the divergance is south of Bakersfield.
yukon11 Member # 2997
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I'm rooting for Brightline's success, Mr. Norman. However, I've read that Brightline, in Florida, needs to gain 1.15B from issuance of private bonds or else it could be in a lot of financial difficulty.
I agree, George, that the Brightline Victorville to Las Vegas train will not be in competition with Moonbeam's HSR. Right now, Jerry is beating a "different drum". He wants to put up "our own damn satellite" (Calif's satellite) to "monitor atmospheric pollution". I wonder how much that will cost us California lemmings?
Richard
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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For ready reference, here is our previous discussion regarding AAF/Brightline:
From the linked discssion, it should be evident that I am not opposed to AAF/Brightline but am quite skeptical of such. Likely I was unaware of the "clout" that the successors of Henry Flagler still hold in Tallahassee, for I've never seen a rail, and even nowadays a highway, project move forth "slaying" the environmental and political (NIMBY, safety) concerns as has AAF.
Regarding the issue of $1.5B of debt financing noted by Richard, they have the approval (again a HOODUNOO up in Tallahassee) to issue Private Activity Bonds. This designation allows the interest received by the holder to be free of Federal Income Tax (FL does not have an Income Tax, but rather an asset tax which owing to a multitude of exclusions makes retired "Joe the Postman in his double wide" exempt). However, the "Full faith and credit..." of any entity does not stand behind these bonds - only the "EBITDA" of the issuer. These bonds, if issued, will at best be a Moody's "C", or otherwise "junk" - and with a correspondingly high interest rate that could imperil the project.
Now addressing the California initiative, Richard et al residing out there in "Libbyland" know the clout the environmentalists hold. Further, can "this gang from Florida" have the strings to pull in Sacramento to move ahead on "foreign turf"?
Finally, to address the point made by Mr. Harris, it is quite correct that AAVEGAS does not present any linear competition to CAHSR. But if the experiences of Iowa Pacific attempting to operate privately run services in conjunction with a public agency, that agency will feel "threatened" and will throw up any roadblock handy.
Enough caveats for a day?
palmland Member # 4344
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My question on this latest Brightline initiative is, why? Why would they venture into CA and an environment toxic to any industrial endeavor, given the political and environmental climate. They will have to endure an unending string of delays and obstruction.
It would seem to me far more prudent to get Orlando up and running and generating income, then proceed with their Tampa plans.
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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From Radisson Park Inn, Clarion PA--
I'm tied up for the night en route to visit my Sister in Greenwich. It would have been $965 + car to fly out to White Plains, but absent a family emergency, for that price, I drive.
Besides, Black Beauty - my new Lex - needs to earn his keep.
Like Mr. Palmland, I have to wonder if AAF is really conscious of the political environment they choose to walk into. Richard suggests he is skeptical, maybe Miss Vickie and Frank may hold "they slayed dragons in Florida, they'll do it out there as well.
Considering the political environment this "cornball" believes it to be where he hasn't set foot since '91 (not a boycott; just no reason), somebody may be biting off more than they can chew.
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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From Mickey D Clarion PA--
Wall Street Journal reports the new AAF corporate name is Brightline Trains, LLC. If names are to be believed they do have expansion plans beyond Florida.
HopefulRailUser Member # 4513
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We’ve got dragons? Who knew.
palmland Member # 4344
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If Brightline wants to look beyond Florida, they ought to stick with the very fast growing southeast, or Texas. In my neck of the woods the largest and greatest population growth 2010 census vs 2017 estimate and population ranking: Nashville (22), Atlanta (9), and Charlotte (36). All 3 metro areas have increased 14%. Granted Nashville to Atlanta would be a challenge giving the topography.
yukon11 Member # 2997
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I really hope that Brightline can reach its financial goals, in Florida, and that it can create new passenger train routes elsewhere.
It would be great if Nashville could, again, have passenger train service. Too bad the old Union Station is now a hotel..it was and still is a great looking train station.
I tend to think of Brightline Florida and Brightline Las Vegas to Victorville (LA) as apples and oranges. Florida is mainly commuter and vacationer traffic, it seems to me. Whereas, Brightline CA to Las Vegas would be essentially a means to get where entertainment is located. I wonder if the the big casinos would help finance the venture? It would also be popular with Raider fans, in S. Calif., after the Oakland Raiders move there in 2020. Also the LV Golden Knights hockey team. If I remember, the XpressWest train was going to allow gambling along the Nevada portion of the route. I wonder if Brightline would have the same thing in mind? Maybe they can get a train conductor who is 1/64 Native American (First Nationist, Indian) and declare the entire train an Indian reservation so they could have gambling the entire route.
One other thought, even if they just have alcoholic beverages aboard, I think they will need a lot of security considering the potential rowdiness of the train crowd.
Enough of my rambling.
Richard
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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From Panera @ Ohio Turnpike Grrat Lakes Service Plaza MP 170W--
On my way back to the barn; "family visits are family visits" - no wonder I always stay in hotels.
Really BLT, how about building out to Orlando first. Get your PAB's issued (very likely a private placement) and at an interest rate at which you have a "prayer" of making this a paying proposition.
"If Barron overcomes the obstacles that derailed previous efforts, both his and other entrepreneurs, X Train could beat the Florida-based interloper to the punch by three years. Like an enticing desert mirage, the idea of tapping this ready-made passenger rail market has been around for years. “The risk is in the execution,” Barron concludes." *********************************** Maybe Amtrak could get into the act, LA to Vegas, and they could call it the "Desert Wind"
Richard
George Harris Member # 2077
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I am afraid that Brightline's thoughts of going into California/Nevada could take it the same way that the Midwest Autotrain (Lousiville KY) took Autotrain. That is, a sinkhole for money that destroyed a great service. It is not just the politics, which can suck all the substance out of a good idea, but the terrain as well. To develop a good speed service on this route would require massive amount of adjustments of terrain that are unimaginable in Florida.
Gilbert B Norman Member # 1541
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Wait a minute volks, what's going on sround here?
Brightline/Virgin wants to enter the route laying new track Meadows-Victorville. Now this outfit that threw in the towel a few years ago wants back in with a train operating over Cajon on BNSF or UP(SP) to San Bernardino.
This going for both of them where Mr. Harris has suggested.
PullmanCo Member # 1138
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I just ran the historic numbers on UP from LAUPT to Las Vegas.
The rate of advance was between 40-50MPH.
I suspect that it will be about that from Victorville to Vegas as well on UP/BNSF. It has to compete with the freight movements.
Remember, containers just flow out of LA on the Santa Fe, the SP, and the UP. It's very busy trackage. Anyone wanting to run passenger on it will pay a very healthy premium to get anything faster than a hotshot container or TOFC run.
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